Last month, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time this cycle. October’s data showed why the Fed is staying cautious and why the path ahead is more complicated. Inflation rose in September, largely due to energy prices, while hiring slowed noticeably. The 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5%. Through it all, corporate earnings have held up, with companies’ summer-quarter results off to a strong start. Here’s what changed as the fourth quarter got underway and what we’re watching through year-end.

A month ago, the big question was whether the Federal Reserve’s next move would be a cut or a hike. September answered it. The Fed raised interest rates for the first time this cycle, inflation stayed firm, and Treasury yields moved toward 5%.