Insights

The U.S. economy looks closer to a “soft landing” than it has in years. Inflation is cooling toward target, unemployment is holding steady, and growth has picked back up after a sluggish end to 2025. Large-cap tech and AI-linked equities are still leading equity markets, while bonds, long unreliable as a hedge during the inflation shock, are quietly reclaiming their role as portfolio ballast. For investors, this feels like a regime shift worth paying attention to.

U.S. equities entered 2026 near record highs, supported by resilient earnings, moderating but uneven inflation, and a gradual Federal Reserve easing cycle that increasingly resembles past “soft-landing” environments, periods when policy loosens without tipping the economy into recession.

U.S. equities ended 2025 near record highs, supported by another quarter of solid earnings and a macro backdrop still shaped by gradual Fed easing, moderating inflation, and resilient labor markets. Importantly, much of this year’s equity performance was driven by earnings growth rather than valuation expansion, particularly in technology and AI-linked sectors.

U.S. equities extended their strong 2025 performance, supported by another quarter of earnings that surpassed expectations and a macro backdrop increasingly shaped by Fed easing and stabilizing inflation. International developed markets lagged, but emerging markets continued to benefit from a weaker dollar and improving growth prospects, a trend highlighted in recent Advisor Outlook data showing EM as one of the few regions gaining consensus support. Bonds resumed their historical role as a source of ballast, with correlations turning positive for diversification and fixed income delivering meaningful gains during equity pullbacks.

Markets continued to defy gravity in October, with equities pressing to new highs and volatility staying contained. The optimism around artificial intelligence, improved margins, and lower rates remained powerful drivers. Still, beneath those headline gains, investors are bracing for colder winds. Utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples, the market’s traditional shelters, have become the month’s unlikely leaders, marking their first outperformance since mid-2022.

As we move through September 2025, the global investment landscape is characterized by uneven equity performance, measured progress in monetary easing, and a continued wave of AI-driven technological transformation. The Federal Reserve’s recent decision to resume rate cuts, lowering the federal funds target range to 4.00–4.25%, marked a meaningful pivot in monetary policy and underscores a shift in the macroeconomic landscape.

As we move through September 2025, the global investment landscape is characterized by uneven equity performance, measured progress in monetary easing, and a continued wave of AI-driven technological transformation. The Federal Reserve’s recent decision to resume rate cuts, lowering the federal funds target range to 4.00–4.25%, marked a meaningful pivot in monetary policy and underscores a shift in the macroeconomic landscape.

As the light gets softer and evenings come a little earlier, markets feel like late summer too, still warm, but with a hint of change in the air. The S&P 500 set a fresh high near 6,445 after a cooler July CPI, and traders now see a September Fed cut as highly likely. think of it as farmers watching the sky and deciding it’s time to bring in part of the harvest.

As we move into the summer, investors are balancing short-term risks with long-term opportunities. Markets are reacting to mixed economic data, ongoing global policy changes, and evolving investor behavior. In this month’s insights, we take a closer look at the forces shaping portfolios right now and how we’re adjusting strategy to help clients stay positioned for what’s next.

As we move into the summer, investors are balancing short-term risks with long-term opportunities. Markets are reacting to mixed economic data, ongoing global policy changes, and evolving investor behavior. In this month’s insights, we take a closer look at the forces shaping portfolios right now and how we’re adjusting strategy to help clients stay positioned for what’s next.