Insights from Zenith Wealth Partners’ Market Outlook Webinar Recap

Our latest quarterly market outlook webinar, led by Andrew Tudor, CAP, CFP®, and Jason Ray, opened with a theme that ran through the whole conversation: 2026 hasn’t followed the usual script. Rather than the Fed, inflation, and markets behaving the way investors typically expect, this year has called for the kind of adaptability improv actors rely on, reading the signals as they come and adjusting in real time.

Jason walked through three warning signs currently flashing on the economic dashboard: inflation climbed to 4.2% in May, its highest reading in over a year, the U.S. dollar has stayed muted despite a Middle East conflict disrupting a fifth of global oil supply, and the Fed has delivered zero of the two rate cuts investors expected, with the 10-year Treasury near 4.5%.

Despite that backdrop, a diversified 60/40 portfolio is up 9.3% year to date, an extraordinary result driven by strength in unexpected places. Real estate has surged from 2.3% for all of 2025 to nearly 15% so far this year, while emerging markets carried forward a strong 2025 into another good year. Small cap and EM have been the market’s sprinters, up 41% and nearly 44% over the past year, but Jason offered a memorable comparison: momentum like that is more fireworks than furnace, dazzling in the moment but not what keeps a portfolio warm over the long run. Over five years and longer, both asset classes settle closer to 7% annualized, a reminder to respect the recent run without chasing it.

The team also touched on what’s dominating analyst earnings calls (AI remains the clear leader at 22% of Q&A, with tariffs and Middle East-driven energy costs climbing fast) and a historical look at midterm election years, which have averaged a 20% intra-year drawdown followed by a 33% recovery the year after. As Jason put it, that volatility is the price of admission, not a reason to walk out of the theater.

Watch the full recording for the complete conversation, including a deeper look at how alternative investments fit into weathering this kind of year.

All written content is for information purposes only. Opinions expressed herein are solely those of Zenith, unless otherwise specifically cited. Material presented is believed to be from reliable sources and no representations are made by our firm as to another parties’ informational accuracy or completeness. All information or ideas provided should be discussed in detail with an advisor, accountant or legal counsel prior to implementation.